How to Use Data and Statistics When You Bet on Football
Betting sites use data to set football betting odds. They consider information about various factors, including team form, previous results, player injuries, team tactics, and home advantage.
Bettors can also use this information to increase their chances of success. While there is never any guarantee that you will win a bet, using data and statistics is a valuable tool.
Accessing the Data You Need
You can access the data you need when placing football bets at various places, including betting sites, football news sites, and dedicated stats pages like the one for Premier League games, teams, and players.
The best way to get unbiased and accurate insights is to use a varied range of sources. You can then keep Excel databases with the information you gather, making it easier to analyse the details and make informed betting choices.
Light Touch and In-Depth Odds Analysis
When assessing the odds and understanding the value of bets, you can take a light touch or go into more detail. All bettors adopt at least a light-touch approach when they look at the odds for a team and take a few seconds to determine if the odds given make the bet worthwhile or not.
One step up from this is the approach that involves basic research and data analysis. This can be as simple as examining the recent record in West Ham vs. Newcastle encounters. Doing this for the games since the start of 2022 reveals three draws and two West Ham losses. These results suggest betting on a West Ham win is a risk, especially when you back this data up by referencing the Premier League table.
This type of basic research takes some time, but it can help you avoid placing bets that lack value. This can be especially valuable if you are a fan of EV betting, which involves determining whether or not you can expect to win or lose on bets over time. For this type of betting, calculating the EV and determining whether it's positive is integral to deciding whether to place a bet.
You also have the opportunity to delve deeper into our available football data that we have here on our site. There is so much data out there that you can look at the history of anything, from player matchups to bookings and penalties scored. It’s worth investing time in analysis of this type, especially if you want to take advantage of football bets outside of regular betting on the result of a game or the score.
The Advantages of Data-Driven Betting
There are several advantages to using data and statistics when betting on football. The benefits you can get include the following:
- Improved betting budget management when you understand which bets represent good value and which do not.
- Less chance of making a compulsive betting decision.
- Managing football betting risks, although they can never be eliminated.
- The ability to monitor betting performance by keeping clear and comprehensive records.
Overall, using data when betting on football helps you make better-informed decisions. While this does not guarantee winning, it can help you minimise your losses.
Examples of Advanced Statistical Football Betting
Several examples of using advanced statistics in data-driven football betting exist, including examining information such as the number of goals a team usually scores in the first half of a game or the number of corners they score from.
We will use some manufactured figures as an example to show you how this type of statistical analysis works.
Example:
You are considering betting on over 2.5 goals in a Liverpool vs. West Ham game.
Looking at Liverpool’s statistics shows that over 76% of their home games end with over 2.5 goals.
You then analyse West Ham’s away form and see that 56% of their away games end with more than 2.5 goals.
Finally, you examine previous games between the two teams and find that 50% of their last 10 meetings ended with more than 2.5 goals.
Analysing this information shows you that there is a 43% chance that the Liverpool vs. West Ham game will end with more than 2.5 goals. This means that odds of over 2.3 must be available for you to get value from the bet.
If the odds are lower than this, it may be worth watching the game live. If the odds become more attractive, you can bet live in play.
You can see how statistical analysis can show you the value of a particular football bet. Determining that a wager does not have enough value can save you from making poor decisions and losing money.
So, while there is never any guarantee of successful football betting, spending time analysing data can help you manage your budget more effectively by avoiding wasteful wagers.
The Issue with Solely Relying on Statistics
We have shown that data and statistics can be helpful when you are betting on football. However, there is an issue you should be aware of. This issue is that, in some circumstances, historical data and statistics are not the only factors that determine a result. Here are some examples of potential situations to be aware of.
- The weather conditions when a match is played.
- Injuries to players.
- The number of games a team has played in quick succession.
- The relative importance of previous meetings between the teams compared with the match you are betting on.
- Changes in the manager or backroom staff.
- External factors that may affect the performance of the team as a whole or individual players.
So, it’s often insufficient to merely look at the figures and calculate the percentages. Data and calculations are integral to this type of betting. However, if you want to use statistics and data in an attempt to improve your football betting success, you should also consider any factors outside of the figures.
Taking the time to do this will show you how accurate your calculations will likely be. This, in turn, enables you to determine the accurate value of a potential bet, allowing you to decide whether to place the bet.
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