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 Monte Carlo Or Bust: Simple Simulations for Aspiring Sports Bettors by Joseph Buchdahl
In addition to the famous Casino and the gambling fallacy that shares its name, 'Monte Carlo' is also used to describe a tool of statistical forecasting. A Monte Carlo simulation models the probability of uncertain outcomes that cannot be easily predicted from mathematical equations. My book describes how aspiring sports bettors can use a Monte Carlo simulation to improve the quality, and hopefully profitability, of their betting, unravelling the mystery of probability and variance that lies at its heart.
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PINNACLE ODDS TRACKER
Tracking Pinnacle's odds, the sharpest in the industry, allows bettors to make mathematically profitable value bets. The Pinnacle Odds dropper will notify you in real time of Pinnacle's price movements, allowing you to take advantage at other slower bookmakers. Choose from 3 subscription packages and set filters for your favourite betting markets. The gold package includes opening odds alerts and a closing line value bet tracker. The methodology follows Football-Data's own Wisdom of the Crowd. Read my analysis of why this is a proven and valid betting methodology.
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WILLIAM HILL New: BET £10 GET £30
18+ Play Safe. New UK customers using Promo code R30 only bet a minimum €10 stake (min odds 1.5) and free bets paid as 3 x £10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 7 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player restrictions apply. See website for full terms. #ad. Please Gamble Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org | GamStop
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Affiliate Disclosure:
Football-Data's revenues come from losses accrued by customers of advertised bookmakers. Nearly all bettors lose in the long run. Users taking advantage of any advertised welcome offer should familiarise themselves with the bookmaker's T&Cs. Any information appearing on this website, including references to winning, profit, beating odds/bookmakers etc. should not be considered professional advice or a recommendation to bet or gamble. Furthermore, the small proportion of customers considered by bookmakers to be sufficiently skilled at beating their prices may find their stakes restricted or have their accounts closed. Both the UK Government and bookmakers alike maintain that betting and gambling in the UK should be considered a form of entertainment only and not a trade to make money. Please gamble responsibly. NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose. GambleAware.
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 Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides. Read more here...
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As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
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WHAT IS FOOTBALL-DATA?
Football-Data is a free football betting portal providing historical results & odds to help football betting enthusiasts analyse many years of data quickly and efficiently to gain an edge over the bookmaker. Whilst other football results and odds databases do exist, Football-Data is unique in making available computer-ready data in Excel and CSV format for quantitative analysis. Simply download for free the available files, and learn more about how to use the data in Football-Data's free guide to rating systems plus Football-Data's comprehensive betting guide.
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WILLIAM HILL New: BET €10 GET €40
18+ Play Safe. New Ireland customers using Promo code BB40 only bet a minimum €10 stake (min odds 1.5) and free bets paid as 4 x €10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 7 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player restrictions apply. See website for full terms. gamblingtherapy.org
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