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Guest Article:
Unpredictability of the 2015/16 Premier League Season

Posted 3rd June 2015

The following article investigating the unpredictability of the 2015/16 Premiership season has been produced by Dave Williams, using betting odds and resuts data provided by Football-Data. Dave has kindly given me permission to reproduce it here. Below is the abstract followed by a link to the full PDF document.


The bookmaker's odds for the 2015/16 season are analysed and compared with previous results for the 10-season period: 2005/06 through 2014/15. It was substantially contrary. There were fewer wins by the home team than any prior EPL season; now totaling 24 seasons. West Ham had startling victories in their first 3 away matches to start the season off in an unprecedented manner and Leicester City and Chelsea's subsequent performances ensured that it remained so. Prior to the start of the season the bookmaker's assessed Leicester as a 40-point achiever throughout the season, ultimately a 41 point deficit. Considering their match odds available prior to the start of each round, the expected value of their seasonal points only increased to 53. This meant just under 1/3rd of this deficit was accounted for throughout the season, there was an enormous inertia about their pre-season hopes. Chelsea's performance largely operated in a completely opposite manner. Favorites to win the league they started extremely poorly and never recovered. It was indeed the most unpredictable EPL, at least, when compared to the previous 10 seasons.


Readers may also wish to refer to my previous article looking at the unpredictability of the 2015/16 Premiership season.