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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.

Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. These should not be seen as betting tips as such but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new selections are added.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of approx. 15.00 24th February 2017).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
E0 25/02/17 Chelsea v Swansea Away 15 6.95% bet365
E1 25/02/17 Brentford v Rotherham Away 7.5 2.27% bet365
E2 25/02/17 Chesterfield v Oxford Draw 3.6 2.06% bet365
E3 25/02/17 Barnet v Cambridge Home 2.6 4.74% bet365
E3 25/02/17 Doncaster v Accrington Draw 4 3.04% bet365
EC 25/02/17 Dover Athletic v Eastleigh Away 4.75 2.37% bet365
SP2 25/02/17 Mirandes v Girona Home 3.8 3.53% bet365
F2 24/02/17 Amiens v Orleans Draw 3.45 7.47% Betsson
E1 25/02/17 Brighton v Reading Home 1.73 3.37% BetVictor
E1 25/02/17 Newcastle v Bristol City Home 1.53 2.18% BetVictor
E3 25/02/17 Luton v Plymouth Draw 3.7 2.48% BetVictor
B1 26/02/17 Anderlecht v Genk Away 6.25 4.79% Bwin
E2 25/02/17 Bristol Rvs v Scunthorpe Home 2.5 3.00% Centrebet
T1 26/02/17 Karabukspor v Genclerbirligi Home 2.5 2.93% Centrebet
B1 25/02/17 Lokeren v Eupen Home 2.15 4.58% Coolbet
B1 25/02/17 Charleroi v St Truiden Home 1.8 2.51% Coolbet
E1 24/02/17 Wolves v Birmingham Home 1.93 2.46% Coolbet
E2 25/02/17 Sheffield United v Bolton Home 1.75 2.78% Coolbet
E2 25/02/17 Peterboro v Rochdale Away 2.65 2.68% Coolbet
E3 25/02/17 Notts County v Yeovil Home 2.55 2.75% Coolbet
E3 25/02/17 Luton v Plymouth Home 2.16 2.64% Coolbet
E3 25/02/17 Carlisle v Portsmouth Away 2.16 3.53% Coolbet
EC 25/02/17 Aldershot v Bromley Home 1.91 2.68% Coolbet
EC 25/02/17 Torquay v Sutton Away 2.9 3.73% Coolbet
F1 25/02/17 Rennes v Lorient Away 4.2 8.16% Coolbet
N1 25/02/17 Heerenveen v Roda Home 1.6 2.44% Coolbet
N1 25/02/17 Nijmegen v Sparta Rotterdam Away 3.05 4.06% Coolbet
EC 25/02/17 Forest Green v Woking Home 1.5 2.10% Coral
B1 24/02/17 Club Brugge v Waregem Home 1.45 3.77% Interwetten
D1 25/02/17 Hertha v Ein Frankfurt Draw 3.4 2.37% Interwetten
D2 26/02/17 Erzgebirge Aue v Dresden Away 2.6 7.90% Interwetten
D2 26/02/17 Nurnberg v Bochum Away 3.6 4.20% Interwetten
D2 27/02/17 St Pauli v Karlsruhe Home 2.2 2.47% Interwetten
E0 25/02/17 Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough Draw 3.4 6.36% Interwetten
E0 27/02/17 Leicester v Liverpool Away 1.7 3.07% Interwetten
F1 24/02/17 Nantes v Dijon Home 1.85 3.97% Interwetten
F1 25/02/17 Nancy v Toulouse Draw 3.1 3.56% Interwetten
F1 26/02/17 Lyon v Metz Home 1.3 3.79% Interwetten
F2 24/02/17 Laval v Bourg Peronnas Home 2.2 3.49% Interwetten
F2 24/02/17 Ajaccio v Sochaux Draw 3 6.82% Interwetten
I1 26/02/17 Genoa v Bologna Home 2.2 6.36% Interwetten
I1 26/02/17 Sassuolo v Milan Home 3.1 5.50% Interwetten
I2 24/02/17 Brescia v Cittadella Away 2.9 2.29% Interwetten
P1 26/02/17 Boavista v Porto Away 1.45 3.80% Interwetten
SP1 25/02/17 Eibar v Malaga Home 2.2 4.43% Interwetten
SP1 25/02/17 Leganes v La Coruna Draw 3.3 3.48% Interwetten
SP1 25/02/17 Alaves v Valencia Draw 3.3 2.24% Interwetten
SP2 24/02/17 Reus Deportiu v Oviedo Draw 3 2.49% Interwetten
SP2 26/02/17 Almeria v UCAM Murcia Draw 3.2 4.34% Interwetten
T1 24/02/17 Rizespor v Kayserispor Draw 3.3 2.01% Interwetten
E0 25/02/17 Everton v Sunderland Away 8.92 7.19% LeonBets
E2 25/02/17 AFC Wimbledon v Walsall Home 2.42 3.73% LeonBets
F2 24/02/17 Strasbourg v Clermont Draw 3.52 4.07% LeonBets
P1 24/02/17 Benfica v Chaves Away 19.81 8.33% LeonBets
P1 25/02/17 Tondela v Maritimo Draw 3.27 2.51% LeonBets
SP1 26/02/17 Ath Bilbao v Granada Away 8.32 2.74% LeonBets
D2 25/02/17 Hannover v Bielefeld Draw 4.6 6.10% Mybet
T1 27/02/17 Galatasaray v Besiktas Away 2.65 4.22% Mybet
T1 25/02/17 Alanyaspor v Adanaspor Home 2.11 2.19% Noxwin
T1 26/02/17 Osmanlispor v Buyuksehyr Draw 3.3 2.06% Noxwin
SC1 25/02/17 Dundee United v Morton Home 1.84 3.21% OddsRing
SP2 26/02/17 Numancia v Cadiz Draw 3.2 2.52% SBOBet
SP1 25/02/17 Leganes v La Coruna Away 3.25 2.24% Skybet
E3 25/02/17 Mansfield v Newport County Home 1.8 3.69% William Hill
E3 25/02/17 Leyton Orient v Cheltenham Home 3.1 2.46% William Hill