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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.

When I provide my biweekly fixtures updates, on this page I will also show a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found). These should not be seen as betting tips as such but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new selections are added.

Archive of previous results (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of approx. 16.00 20th January 2017).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
E3 21/01/17 Wycombe v Luton Draw 3.4 3.02% 188bet
E0 21/01/17 West Brom v Sunderland Away 6.03 2.13% 5Dimes
E1 21/01/17 Barnsley v Leeds Home 3.5 3.03% bet365
E1 21/01/17 Norwich v Wolves Away 3.8 2.07% bet365
E3 21/01/17 Exeter v Colchester Home 2.6 3.91% bet365
E3 21/01/17 Grimsby v Notts County Away 4 8.60% bet365
I1 21/01/17 Milan v Napoli Home 4 3.92% bet365
N1 22/01/17 Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles Home 2.2 2.54% bet365
SP2 21/01/17 Lugo v Gimnastic Away 4 7.26% bet365
SP2 21/01/17 Vallecano v Elche Away 5.25 4.86% bet365
SP2 22/01/17 Reus Deportiu v Mallorca Away 4.1 3.23% bet365
I2 21/01/17 Cittadella v Bari Draw 3.21 4.83% Betboro
D1 21/01/17 Werder Bremen v Dortmund Home 6.1 2.91% BetGun
B1 22/01/17 Anderlecht v St Truiden Home 1.31 2.07% BetOlimp
E0 22/01/17 Arsenal v Burnley Away 18 3.00% BetVictor
E1 21/01/17 Newcastle v Rotherham Away 13 3.55% BetVictor
I1 22/01/17 Genoa v Crotone Away 7.5 2.38% BetVictor
N1 21/01/17 Feyenoord v Willem II Home 1.29 2.09% BetWay
SC1 21/01/17 Dumbarton v Queen of Sth Away 2.38 2.01% BetWay
F2 20/01/17 Sochaux v Clermont Draw 3.1 3.30% Centrebet
E0 21/01/17 Middlesbrough v West Ham Home 2.58 2.68% Coolbet
E1 21/01/17 Aston Villa v Preston Home 2.25 4.71% Coolbet
EC 20/01/17 Lincoln v Dover Athletic Home 1.9 4.44% Coolbet
F1 21/01/17 Guingamp v Rennes Home 2.43 4.12% Coolbet
SP1 20/01/17 Las Palmas v La Coruna Away 3.44 2.37% Coolbet
SP1 21/01/17 Villarreal v Valencia Home 1.96 3.02% Coolbet
D1 20/01/17 Freiburg v Bayern Munich Away 1.3 3.15% Interwetten
D1 21/01/17 Wolfsburg v Hamburg Home 2 4.97% Interwetten
D1 21/01/17 RB Leipzig v Ein Frankfurt Home 1.75 2.98% Interwetten
D1 21/01/17 Augsburg v Hoffenheim Away 2.75 2.04% Interwetten
E0 22/01/17 Southampton v Leicester Home 2 6.12% Interwetten
F1 21/01/17 Metz v Montpellier Away 2.7 9.80% Interwetten
F1 22/01/17 Lyon v Marseille Home 1.8 4.96% Interwetten
I1 21/01/17 Milan v Napoli Away 2.3 7.94% Interwetten
I1 22/01/17 Atalanta v Sampdoria Home 1.75 3.70% Interwetten
N1 20/01/17 Twente v Heracles Home 1.7 4.17% Interwetten
N1 21/01/17 Groningen v Vitesse Home 2.5 4.70% Interwetten
P1 23/01/17 Chaves v Nacional Away 4.2 2.50% Interwetten
SP1 22/01/17 Sociedad v Celta Home 2.1 5.70% Interwetten
SP1 22/01/17 Osasuna v Sevilla Away 1.65 5.27% Interwetten
T1 21/01/17 Bursaspor v Adanaspor Away 6.1 9.01% Interwetten
E2 21/01/17 Rochdale v Oxford Away 3.52 2.48% LeonBets
F2 20/01/17 Strasbourg v Tours Away 5.05 5.02% LeonBets
F2 20/01/17 Reims v Valenciennes Away 5.55 2.48% LeonBets
SC3 21/01/17 Arbroath v Annan Athletic Home 1.84 3.35% LeonBets
B1 22/01/17 Mechelen v Westerlo Away 7 9.28% Mybet
EC 21/01/17 Sutton v Eastleigh Away 3.2 4.75% Mybet
F2 20/01/17 Ajaccio v Orleans Away 4 2.88% Mybet
EC 21/01/17 Boreham Wood v Solihull Home 1.86 2.23% NordicBet
I1 22/01/17 Juventus v Lazio Home 1.56 2.29% Noxwin
T1 21/01/17 Karabukspor v Galatasaray Away 2.14 2.57% Noxwin
T1 23/01/17 Alanyaspor v Besiktas Away 1.56 4.95% Noxwin
G1 23/01/17 Giannina v PAOK Away 1.85 5.39% Sportingbet
E0 22/01/17 Chelsea v Hull Away 21 2.20% Titan Bet
N1 21/01/17 Feyenoord v Willem II Away 17 3.14% Titan Bet
I1 22/01/17 Genoa v Crotone Draw 4.3 2.14% Triobet
F2 23/01/17 Brest v Red Star Draw 4 4.75% Unibet
E1 20/01/17 Brighton v Sheffield Weds Home 1.95 3.50% William Hill
F1 20/01/17 Bastia v Nice Away 2.6 2.30% William Hill