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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


WISDOM OF THE CROWD Updated

Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator


Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.

Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of approx. 10:00 19th September 2017).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
D2 21/09/17 Nurnberg v Bochum Away 3.8 4.71% bet365
I2 19/09/17 Bari v Cremonese Away 4.2 4.76% bet365
SP1 21/09/17 Levante v Sociedad Home 3.25 2.26% bet365
F2 19/09/17 Nancy v Bourg Peronnas Draw 3.75 2.28% Betfair
SP1 19/09/17 Barcelona v Eibar Away 29 5.47% BetVictor
F2 19/09/17 Le Havre v Sochaux Home 1.8 2.06% Boyle Sports
I2 19/09/17 Pescara v Virtus Entella Home 1.8 2.53% Boyle Sports
D2 20/09/17 Heidenheim v Darmstadt Home 2.63 4.28% Coolbet
I1 20/09/17 Lazio v Napoli Home 3.75 3.69% Coolbet
I1 20/09/17 Cagliari v Sassuolo Home 2.25 2.27% Coolbet
SP1 20/09/17 Real Madrid v Betis Away 29 18.10% Coral
D1 20/09/17 Mainz v Hoffenheim Home 2.85 2.45% Interwetten
D1 20/09/17 Hertha v Leverkusen Away 2.4 6.47% Interwetten
D2 19/09/17 Holstein Kiel v St Pauli Home 1.9 2.29% Interwetten
I1 19/09/17 Bologna v Inter Home 6.5 4.65% Interwetten
I1 20/09/17 Atalanta v Crotone Draw 5.5 5.14% Interwetten
I1 20/09/17 Milan v Spal Draw 7 2.66% Interwetten
I1 20/09/17 Verona v Sampdoria Away 2.3 6.98% Interwetten
I1 20/09/17 Genoa v Chievo Away 3.8 5.84% Interwetten
F2 19/09/17 Reims v Ajaccio GFCO Home 1.73 4.66% Sportingbet
SP1 21/09/17 Celta v Getafe Home 1.85 3.47% Sportingbet
I1 20/09/17 Benevento v Roma Away 1.4 3.50% Tipbet