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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


WISDOM OF THE CROWD Updated

Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator


Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 16:00 15th February 2019, prices subject to change).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
T1 17/02/19 Kasimpasa v Galatasaray Home 4.5 7.87% bet365
D1 15/02/19 Augsburg v Bayern Munich Home 15 4.63% bet365
F2 15/02/19 Paris FC v Ajaccio Draw 3.1 4.66% bet365
EC 16/02/19 Sutton v Barrow Draw 3.75 3.64% bet365
F2 15/02/19 Auxerre v Clermont Draw 3.1 3.09% bet365
D2 16/02/19 Ingolstadt v Bochum Draw 3.4 2.43% bet365
SP1 17/02/19 Real Madrid v Girona Draw 8 2.41% bet365
EC 16/02/19 Fylde v Chesterfield Away 5.5 11.97% bet365
E3 16/02/19 Forest Green v Yeovil Away 6.5 6.69% bet365
E2 16/02/19 Oxford v Peterboro Away 3.8 3.79% bet365
E3 16/02/19 Oldham v Crewe Away 3.4 2.53% bet365
B1 15/02/19 Standard v Lokeren Home 1.38 2.66% BetOlimp
I1 17/02/19 Spal v Fiorentina Home 3.7 2.68% BetVictor
E3 16/02/19 Port Vale v Morecambe Draw 3.6 2.46% BetVictor
SC3 16/02/19 Elgin v Stirling Away 2.8 3.48% BetVictor
I1 18/02/19 Roma v Bologna Away 8.5 2.40% BetVictor
I1 17/02/19 Udinese v Chievo Away 5.25 2.25% BetVictor
SC0 16/02/19 Hibernian v Hamilton Away 8.25 3.37% Bwin
D2 15/02/19 Paderborn v FC Koln Home 3.4 7.50% Coolbet
N1 17/02/19 Groningen v Feyenoord Home 5.5 6.24% Coolbet
D2 16/02/19 Heidenheim v Hamburg Home 3.85 4.55% Coolbet
P1 17/02/19 Moreirense v Tondela Home 1.97 3.12% Coolbet
N1 17/02/19 Graafschap v Utrecht Home 5.35 2.46% Coolbet
D1 18/02/19 Nurnberg v Dortmund Draw 5.25 3.15% Coolbet
N1 17/02/19 Groningen v Feyenoord Draw 4.1 2.21% Coolbet
SC0 17/02/19 Kilmarnock v Celtic Away 1.5 4.21% Coolbet
SC0 17/02/19 Motherwell v Hearts Away 2.65 4.14% Coolbet
P1 15/02/19 Rio Ave v Santa Clara Away 4.85 2.44% Coolbet
E1 16/02/19 Ipswich v Stoke Away 2.1 2.06% Coolbet
D1 17/02/19 Leverkusen v Fortuna Dusseldorf Home 1.5 3.29% EFbet
E3 16/02/19 Grimsby v Cheltenham Home 2.35 3.06% EFbet
D1 16/02/19 Wolfsburg v Mainz Home 1.8 2.94% EFbet
I1 18/02/19 Roma v Bologna Home 1.5 2.42% EFbet
F2 15/02/19 Le Havre v Nancy Draw 3.85 5.16% EFbet
G1 18/02/19 OFI Crete v Lamia Draw 3.1 3.96% EFbet
D1 16/02/19 Schalke 04 v Freiburg Draw 3.9 3.27% EFbet
SP2 15/02/19 Cordoba v Granada Draw 3.1 3.24% EFbet
I2 17/02/19 Cosenza v Cremonese Draw 3 2.32% EFbet
I2 15/02/19 Palermo v Brescia Draw 3.4 2.05% EFbet
EC 16/02/19 Boreham Wood v Hartlepool Away 3.4 4.78% EFbet
E2 16/02/19 Charlton v Blackpool Away 4.4 4.18% EFbet
SC1 16/02/19 Alloa v Partick Home 3.3 4.51% Fonbet
SC1 16/02/19 Queen of Sth v Dundee United Home 3.25 3.93% Fonbet
E1 16/02/19 Preston v Nott'm Forest Home 2.1 3.62% Fonbet
E3 16/02/19 Notts County v Mansfield Draw 3.5 2.29% Fonbet
F1 16/02/19 Monaco v Nantes Draw 3.85 2.04% Fonbet
P1 17/02/19 Sp Lisbon v Sp Braga Away 3.3 8.18% Fonbet
SP1 16/02/19 Vallecano v Ath Madrid Away 1.8 5.32% Interwetten
D1 15/02/19 Augsburg v Bayern Munich Away 1.3 4.96% Interwetten
F1 17/02/19 St Etienne v Paris SG Home 5.6 4.27% SBOBet
E2 16/02/19 Southend v Portsmouth Home 4 3.10% Unibet
E2 16/02/19 Shrewsbury v Burton Draw 3.35 7.59% Unibet

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.