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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. These should not be seen as betting tips as such but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new selections are added.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of approx. 09:30 25th April 2017).

I2 25/04/17 Ascoli v Avellino Draw 3.25 2.79% 5Dimes
I2 25/04/17 Carpi v Trapani Draw 3.3 4.71% bet365
I2 25/04/17 Spal v Cittadella Draw 3.6 6.09% Centrebet
I2 25/04/17 Brescia v Ternana Draw 3.2 2.88% Centrebet
SP1 26/04/17 Leganes v Las Palmas Home 1.76 2.22% Coolbet
SP1 25/04/17 Granada v Malaga Away 2.2 4.31% Interwetten
SP1 26/04/17 Valencia v Sociedad Away 2.8 3.00% Interwetten
SP1 26/04/17 Barcelona v Osasuna Away 61.8 17.38% OddsRing
SP1 27/04/17 Sevilla v Celta Away 9.5 2.10% Sportingbet
E0 25/04/17 Chelsea v Southampton Home 1.5 3.08% Tipbet