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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


WISDOM OF THE CROWD Updated

Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator


Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 13:00 12th October 2018, prices subject to change).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
E3 20/10/18 Bury v Notts County Away 4.5 6.45% bet365
SP2 21/10/18 Zaragoza v Tenerife Away 3.75 5.90% bet365
B1 21/10/18 Charleroi v Waregem Away 4.2 3.53% bet365
SP1 20/10/18 Valencia v Leganes Away 7.5 2.31% bet365
E0 20/10/18 Man City v Burnley Draw 15 13.78% Betfred
T1 20/10/18 Buyuksehyr v Kayserispor Home 1.5 4.04% BetOlimp
I1 21/10/18 Chievo v Atalanta Home 6.5 9.75% BetVictor
E3 20/10/18 Crawley Town v Newport County Home 3.3 4.13% BetVictor
I1 21/10/18 Bologna v Torino Home 3.7 2.22% BetVictor
E0 20/10/18 Huddersfield v Liverpool Home 13 2.10% BetVictor
F1 20/10/18 Paris SG v Amiens Away 41 17.46% BetVictor
I1 21/10/18 Fiorentina v Cagliari Away 7.5 6.80% BetVictor
SC1 20/10/18 Dunfermline v Queen of Sth Away 3.5 3.10% BetVictor
E3 20/10/18 Forest Green v Cheltenham Home 1.86 4.34% BetWay
N1 21/10/18 Feyenoord v Zwolle Home 1.35 3.95% Coolbet
F1 20/10/18 Dijon v Lille Home 3.55 3.78% Coolbet
F1 20/10/18 Strasbourg v Monaco Home 2.74 2.25% Coolbet
SP1 20/10/18 Real Madrid v Levante Home 1.19 2.09% Coolbet
D1 20/10/18 Augsburg v RB Leipzig Home 3.25 2.05% Coolbet
I1 21/10/18 Bologna v Torino Away 2.38 3.26% Coolbet
T1 21/10/18 Ankaragucu v Yeni Malatyaspor Away 3 2.77% Coolbet
SC0 21/10/18 Hamilton v Rangers Home 13 23.59% Coral
SP1 20/10/18 Barcelona v Sevilla Away 8.5 4.99% Coral
I1 21/10/18 Fiorentina v Cagliari Home 1.6 2.29% EFbet
E0 22/10/18 Arsenal v Leicester Draw 4.75 5.15% EFbet
I2 21/10/18 Salernitana v Perugia Draw 3.2 4.78% EFbet
E1 20/10/18 Ipswich v QPR Draw 3.33 4.70% EFbet
SP2 20/10/18 Alcorcon v Granada Draw 3.05 4.13% EFbet
D2 21/10/18 Paderborn v Union Berlin Draw 3.6 3.78% EFbet
I2 21/10/18 Lecce v Palermo Draw 3.1 3.49% EFbet
I2 21/10/18 Venezia v Verona Draw 3.15 3.29% EFbet
F2 19/10/18 Paris FC v Chateauroux Draw 3.46 3.18% EFbet
I2 20/10/18 Cosenza v Foggia Draw 3.25 2.88% EFbet
I2 20/10/18 Cittadella v Brescia Draw 3.45 2.55% EFbet
SP2 21/10/18 Zaragoza v Tenerife Draw 3.3 2.30% EFbet
I2 20/10/18 Crotone v Padova Draw 3.65 2.22% EFbet
F2 19/10/18 Orleans v Valenciennes Away 3.45 3.90% EFbet
G1 21/10/18 OFI Crete v Olympiakos Away 1.5 3.87% EFbet
D1 19/10/18 Ein Frankfurt v Fortuna Dusseldorf Home 1.75 4.44% Interwetten
SP1 20/10/18 Valencia v Leganes Home 1.65 4.15% Interwetten
D2 20/10/18 Bielefeld v Greuther Furth Home 2.2 4.14% Interwetten
SP1 21/10/18 Betis v Valladolid Home 1.7 2.62% Interwetten
D2 20/10/18 Heidenheim v Magdeburg Home 2.3 2.59% Interwetten
I1 21/10/18 Parma v Lazio Away 1.8 7.43% Interwetten
D1 20/10/18 Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich Away 1.45 4.93% Interwetten
D1 20/10/18 Nurnberg v Hoffenheim Away 2 4.46% Interwetten
B1 19/10/18 Club Brugge v Waasland-Beveren Away 16.2 2.15% LeonBets
SP2 21/10/18 Reus Deportiu v Rayo Majadahonda Draw 3 2.25% Sportingbet
N1 21/10/18 Feyenoord v Zwolle Away 13.5 3.54% Sportingbet
E2 20/10/18 Bradford v Rochdale Home 3.2 2.78% Unibet

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.