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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.

Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 15:45 19th January 2018, prices subject to change).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
E0 20/01/18 Brighton v Chelsea Home 6.78 2.49% 5Dimes
E3 20/01/18 Notts County v Exeter Away 4.2 3.09% bet365
E3 20/01/18 Mansfield v Cheltenham Away 3.1 2.22% bet365
SP2 21/01/18 Tenerife v Barcelona B Away 5.25 2.51% bet365
E0 20/01/18 Burnley v Man United Home 7.5 2.09% Betfair
E1 20/01/18 QPR v Middlesbrough Home 3.4 2.76% Betfair
E2 20/01/18 Scunthorpe v Gillingham Away 4.75 4.62% Betfair
E3 20/01/18 Colchester v Grimsby Away 4.2 5.97% Betfair
G1 20/01/18 Panathinaikos v Kerkyra Home 1.39 2.44% BetOlimp
G1 21/01/18 Olympiakos v Xanthi Home 1.22 2.67% BetOlimp
G1 21/01/18 PAOK v Apollon Home 1.13 2.14% BetOlimp
F1 21/01/18 Monaco v Metz Home 1.37 3.52% BetRegal
I1 21/01/18 Lazio v Chievo Away 15 7.42% BetVictor
I2 20/01/18 Cesena v Bari Away 2.75 2.66% BetVictor
P1 20/01/18 Benfica v Chaves Away 15 4.49% BetVictor
N1 20/01/18 Zwolle v NAC Breda Away 5.75 2.57% Bwin
E3 19/01/18 Newport County v Crawley Town Home 2 2.18% Coolbet
SP2 19/01/18 Granada v Zaragoza Home 1.8 4.03% Intertops
D1 20/01/18 M'gladbach v Augsburg Away 3.8 3.27% Interwetten
D1 21/01/18 Schalke 04 v Hannover Home 1.65 3.09% Interwetten
E0 22/01/18 Swansea v Liverpool Away 1.35 2.18% Interwetten
F1 20/01/18 Strasbourg v Dijon Home 2.2 7.06% Interwetten
F1 20/01/18 Nantes v Bordeaux Home 2.1 4.30% Interwetten
F1 21/01/18 Nice v St Etienne Home 1.7 4.74% Interwetten
I1 21/01/18 Bologna v Benevento Home 1.75 2.70% Interwetten
I1 21/01/18 Sampdoria v Fiorentina Away 2.6 3.95% Interwetten
P1 20/01/18 Portimonense v Sp Braga Away 2.3 10.16% Interwetten
SP1 20/01/18 Las Palmas v Valencia Home 4.8 2.23% Interwetten
SP1 21/01/18 Sociedad v Celta Home 2.2 13.90% Interwetten
SP1 21/01/18 Alaves v Leganes Draw 3.35 4.82% Interwetten
SP1 22/01/18 Eibar v Malaga Home 1.75 2.85% Interwetten
T1 19/01/18 Kasimpasa v Alanyaspor Home 2.4 6.11% Interwetten
T1 20/01/18 Karabukspor v Genclerbirligi Away 2.3 2.11% Interwetten
F1 19/01/18 Caen v Marseille Away 1.91 3.36% Marsbet
E0 20/01/18 Everton v West Brom Away 4.25 5.25% Unibet
SP2 21/01/18 Osasuna v Leonesa Home 1.75 2.35% William Hill