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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 15:45 7th December 2018, prices subject to change).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
E3 08/12/18 Yeovil v Forest Green Home 4 10.28% bet365
E3 08/12/18 Stevenage v Lincoln Home 4.33 5.56% bet365
E3 08/12/18 Crawley Town v Northampton Home 3.8 4.05% bet365
E1 08/12/18 Wigan v Derby Home 3.4 3.30% bet365
E2 08/12/18 Bristol Rvs v Doncaster Home 3.1 2.05% bet365
EC 08/12/18 Sutton v Solihull Draw 3.5 9.52% bet365
E0 08/12/18 Man United v Fulham Draw 5.75 3.72% bet365
T1 10/12/18 Kasimpasa v Kayserispor Away 7 6.66% bet365
D1 08/12/18 Hertha v Ein Frankfurt Away 2.9 3.44% bet365
E1 08/12/18 Stoke v Ipswich Away 9.5 2.71% bet365
B1 08/12/18 St Truiden v Standard Away 3 2.67% bet365
EC 08/12/18 Gateshead v Bromley Away 4.2 2.60% bet365
E0 08/12/18 Leicester v Tottenham Draw 3.75 3.31% Betfred
G1 08/12/18 AEK v Lamia Home 1.23 2.83% BetOlimp
T1 08/12/18 Trabzonspor v Konyaspor Draw 3.51 3.03% BetOlimp
E2 08/12/18 Peterboro v Oxford Away 3.6 2.70% BetOlimp
N1 09/12/18 FC Emmen v Feyenoord Home 8 4.29% BetVictor
B1 07/12/18 Waasland-Beveren v Club Brugge Home 8 3.38% BetVictor
E1 08/12/18 Leeds v QPR Draw 4 5.34% BetVictor
E1 08/12/18 Wigan v Derby Draw 3.5 2.07% BetVictor
I1 08/12/18 Lazio v Sampdoria Away 9 8.73% BetVictor
F1 09/12/18 Lille v Reims Away 5.75 5.30% BetVictor
F1 08/12/18 Guingamp v Amiens Home 2.28 7.67% Centrebet
E0 08/12/18 Chelsea v Man City Home 4.2 2.31% Centrebet
E3 08/12/18 Bury v Exeter Home 1.62 2.07% Centrebet
E3 08/12/18 Yeovil v Forest Green Away 2.4 10.55% Centrebet
SC1 08/12/18 Partick v Dunfermline Away 2.35 5.19% Centrebet
E0 08/12/18 Bournemouth v Liverpool Away 1.68 5.07% Centrebet
B1 08/12/18 Mouscron v Waregem Home 2.85 6.07% Coolbet
E2 08/12/18 Accrington v Sunderland Home 3.05 5.13% Coolbet
N1 09/12/18 Utrecht v Heracles Home 1.72 4.90% Coolbet
E3 08/12/18 Mansfield v Notts County Home 1.5 4.22% Coolbet
N1 08/12/18 Willem II v Heerenveen Home 2.4 4.15% Coolbet
P1 08/12/18 Tondela v Sp Braga Home 6 3.83% Coolbet
I1 09/12/18 Genoa v Spal Home 2.1 3.20% Coolbet
N1 08/12/18 Den Haag v Graafschap Home 1.6 2.86% Coolbet
P1 09/12/18 Guimaraes v Rio Ave Home 2.23 2.31% Coolbet
SC0 08/12/18 Livingston v St Mirren Home 1.83 2.23% Coolbet
E3 08/12/18 Colchester v Macclesfield Home 1.6 2.02% Coolbet
P1 08/12/18 Setubal v Benfica Draw 4.5 2.06% Coolbet
N1 09/12/18 FC Emmen v Feyenoord Away 1.53 5.19% Coolbet
E0 09/12/18 Newcastle v Wolves Away 2.82 2.65% Coolbet
G1 09/12/18 PAOK v Larisa Home 1.25 3.64% EFbet
SP1 08/12/18 Ath Madrid v Alaves Home 1.45 2.77% EFbet
E1 08/12/18 Brentford v Swansea Draw 3.65 3.22% EFbet
I1 09/12/18 Milan v Torino Draw 3.7 2.63% EFbet
SC2 08/12/18 Brechin v Stenhousemuir Draw 3.6 2.39% EFbet
I2 09/12/18 Cremonese v Cittadella Draw 3.15 2.16% EFbet
D1 08/12/18 Freiburg v RB Leipzig Home 4.4 4.25% Interwetten
E1 07/12/18 West Brom v Aston Villa Home 2.4 2.71% Interwetten
E3 08/12/18 Tranmere v Cambridge Home 2.25 3.31% Skybet
P1 09/12/18 Nacional v Boavista Home 2.48 2.48% Unibet
P1 09/12/18 Sp Lisbon v Aves Away 15 4.34% William Hill

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.