Football Betting - Football Results - Free Bets Bet365
Updated: 17/01/21 Bookmark and Share legal disclaimer BeGambleAware


Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

Football-Data's revenues come from losses accrued by customers of advertised bookmakers. Nearly all bettors lose in the long run. Users taking advantage of any advertised welcome offer should familiarise themselves with the bookmaker's T&Cs. Any information appearing on this website, including references to winning, profit, beating odds/bookmakers etc. should not be considered professional advice or a recommendation to bet or gamble. Betting and gambling in the UK is considered entertainment only and not a trade to make money. Please gamble responsibly. NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose. BeGambleAware.

I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.

Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble responsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 15:30 15th January 2021, prices subject to change, check Oddsportal for bookmakers).

Div Date Selection Odds Value
B1 16/01/21 Charleroi v Mechelen Away 3.45 2.94%
B1 16/01/21 Mouscron v Genk Home 5 3.94%
B1 17/01/21 Gent v Antwerp Home 2.09 2.26%
D1 17/01/21 Ein Frankfurt v Schalke 04 Draw 4.84 3.49%
D2 15/01/21 Greuther Furth v Paderborn Draw 3.9 6.04%
D2 17/01/21 Heidenheim v Darmstadt Draw 3.55 2.09%
D2 17/01/21 Holstein Kiel v Karlsruhe Draw 3.63 2.83%
D2 18/01/21 Hamburg v Osnabruck Home 1.66 2.30%
D2 18/01/21 Hamburg v Osnabruck Draw 4.34 3.27%
E0 16/01/21 Fulham v Chelsea Draw 4.44 2.38%
E0 16/01/21 Leicester v Southampton Away 5.05 3.68%
E0 16/01/21 Wolves v West Brom Draw 3.92 2.65%
E1 16/01/21 Blackburn v Stoke Draw 3.48 2.76%
E2 16/01/21 Accrington v Gillingham Home 1.86 3.97%
E3 16/01/21 Bolton v Cheltenham Home 3.5 3.57%
E3 16/01/21 Colchester v Cambridge Away 2.45 2.85%
E3 16/01/21 Stevenage v Tranmere Draw 3.28 4.59%
E3 16/01/21 Walsall v Oldham Draw 3.66 2.11%
EC 16/01/21 Wrexham v Dover Athletic Away 7.5 5.32%
F1 15/01/21 Montpellier v Monaco Draw 3.75 2.28%
F1 17/01/21 Lyon v Metz Home 1.33 2.77%
F1 17/01/21 Nice v Bordeaux Home 2.5 3.15%
F1 17/01/21 Strasbourg v St Etienne Home 2.1 2.85%
F1 17/01/21 Strasbourg v St Etienne Away 4.34 2.22%
F2 16/01/21 Amiens v Le Havre Draw 3.1 3.59%
F2 16/01/21 Clermont v Dunkerque Home 1.58 2.39%
G1 17/01/21 AEK v Atromitos Home 1.57 3.11%
G1 17/01/21 Olympiakos v Giannina Home 1.24 4.31%
G1 17/01/21 Volos NFC v Lamia Away 3.75 6.15%
I1 15/01/21 Lazio v Roma Home 3 2.34%
I1 15/01/21 Lazio v Roma Draw 3.68 3.06%
I1 16/01/21 Torino v Spezia Home 2.12 4.30%
I1 17/01/21 Crotone v Benevento Home 3.05 2.87%
I1 17/01/21 Inter v Juventus Draw 3.78 2.79%
I1 18/01/21 Cagliari v Milan Home 6.5 2.93%
I1 18/01/21 Cagliari v Milan Draw 4.91 2.85%
I2 15/01/21 Chievo v Virtus Entella Draw 3.89 2.77%
I2 16/01/21 Cittadella v Ascoli Draw 4.48 2.49%
I2 16/01/21 Pisa v Brescia Draw 3.2 2.66%
I2 16/01/21 Reggina v Lecce Draw 3.51 3.12%
I2 17/01/21 Pescara v Cremonese Draw 3.13 3.29%
N1 16/01/21 Zwolle v For Sittard Draw 3.92 3.54%
N1 17/01/21 Ajax v Feyenoord Draw 5.45 2.28%
N1 17/01/21 Groningen v Twente Away 3.12 2.21%
P1 16/01/21 Guimaraes v Farense Away 4.16 2.70%
P1 16/01/21 Tondela v Boavista Away 2.43 2.47%
P1 17/01/21 Santa Clara v Famalicao Away 3.45 2.04%
SC0 16/01/21 Hamilton v Dundee United Away 2.3 2.36%
SC0 16/01/21 Hibernian v Kilmarnock Draw 3.6 2.15%
SC0 16/01/21 St Johnstone v St Mirren Away 3.5 3.90%
SC0 17/01/21 Motherwell v Rangers Home 12 3.57%
T1 15/01/21 Genclerbirligi v Karagumruk Away 2.45 2.76%
T1 16/01/21 Buyuksehyr v Sivasspor Draw 4 2.79%
T1 17/01/21 Besiktas v Galatasaray Draw 3.72 6.56%
T1 17/01/21 Denizlispor v Hatayspor Away 2.55 2.50%
T1 17/01/21 Yeni Malatyaspor v Rizespor Draw 3.4 5.10%
T1 18/01/21 Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu Home 1.43 2.21%
T1 18/01/21 Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu Draw 6.5 7.46%
T1 18/01/21 Kasimpasa v Erzurum BB Home 2.05 3.10%
T1 18/01/21 Kasimpasa v Erzurum BB Draw 4.08 10.70%

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.