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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

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I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble responsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 15:00 23rd October 2020, prices subject to change, check Oddsportal for bookmakers).

Div Date Selection Odds Value
B1 25/10/20 Antwerp v Beerschot VA Draw 4.03 5.21%
B1 26/10/20 Gent v Genk Draw 3.99 3.33%
D1 24/10/20 Bayern Munich v Ein Frankfurt Away 14.5 7.04%
D1 24/10/20 Dortmund v Schalke 04 Home 1.27 2.50%
D1 24/10/20 RB Leipzig v Hertha Away 7 4.33%
D1 26/10/20 Leverkusen v Augsburg Draw 4.46 2.81%
D2 24/10/20 Holstein Kiel v Greuther Furth Draw 3.6 6.05%
E0 24/10/20 Fulham v Crystal Palace Draw 3.34 2.01%
E0 24/10/20 Liverpool v Sheffield United Home 1.29 2.03%
E0 24/10/20 Man United v Chelsea Draw 3.84 2.79%
E0 25/10/20 Wolves v Newcastle Home 1.85 2.14%
E0 26/10/20 Burnley v Tottenham Home 6 2.37%
E1 24/10/20 Coventry v Blackburn Draw 3.6 2.17%
E2 24/10/20 Burton v AFC Wimbledon Away 3.13 3.50%
E2 24/10/20 Wigan v Plymouth Draw 3.6 5.08%
E3 24/10/20 Salford v Crawley Town Home 1.82 2.34%
F1 24/10/20 Lorient v Marseille Draw 3.46 2.37%
F1 24/10/20 Paris SG v Dijon Draw 21 13.88%
F1 25/10/20 Lyon v Monaco Home 1.77 2.69%
F1 25/10/20 Montpellier v Reims Away 4.1 10.62%
F1 25/10/20 Nice v Lille Away 2.34 3.63%
F2 24/10/20 Caen v Guingamp Away 3 4.50%
F2 24/10/20 Clermont v Ajaccio Home 2.01 2.46%
F2 24/10/20 Grenoble v Nancy Draw 3.08 3.29%
F2 24/10/20 Pau FC v Niort Away 3.2 3.31%
F2 24/10/20 Troyes v Valenciennes Home 1.85 4.33%
G1 25/10/20 Apollon v Lamia Draw 3.14 6.20%
G1 25/10/20 Giannina v AEK Home 5.5 4.52%
I1 23/10/20 Sassuolo v Torino Away 4.8 4.20%
I1 24/10/20 Lazio v Bologna Away 5 2.16%
I1 25/10/20 Benevento v Napoli Home 9.5 5.13%
I1 25/10/20 Fiorentina v Udinese Away 5 2.08%
I2 24/10/20 Salernitana v Ascoli Home 2.21 2.55%
N1 25/10/20 Den Haag v AZ Alkmaar Away 1.87 2.50%
N1 25/10/20 Vitesse v PSV Eindhoven Home 3.2 5.15%
SC0 24/10/20 St Johnstone v Dundee United Away 4.5 2.04%
SC0 25/10/20 Aberdeen v Celtic Draw 3.98 2.29%
SC1 24/10/20 Alloa v Dunfermline Away 1.93 3.71%
SC3 24/10/20 Edinburgh City v Cowdenbeath Home 1.72 2.46%
SP1 24/10/20 Osasuna v Ath Bilbao Draw 3.2 4.26%
SP1 24/10/20 Sevilla v Eibar Draw 4.69 4.22%
SP1 24/10/20 Sevilla v Eibar Away 8.3 2.27%
SP1 25/10/20 Cadiz v Villarreal Home 3.85 4.22%
SP1 25/10/20 Valladolid v Alaves Draw 3.09 2.24%
SP2 24/10/20 Cartagena v Las Palmas Draw 3.02 3.42%
SP2 24/10/20 Castellon v Girona Draw 3.02 2.22%
SP2 25/10/20 Tenerife v Espanol Draw 3.06 10.75%
SP2 26/10/20 Alcorcon v Mallorca Draw 3.02 11.13%
T1 25/10/20 Alanyaspor v Karagumruk Home 1.6 2.78%
T1 25/10/20 Yeni Malatyaspor v Genclerbirligi Draw 3.64 4.65%

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.