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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

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I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble responsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 12:15 20th April 2021, prices subject to change, check Oddsportal for bookmakers).

Div Date Selection Odds Value
D1 20/04/21 Ein Frankfurt v Augsburg Away 7.8 5.97%
D1 21/04/21 Dortmund v Union Berlin Away 6.75 5.24%
E1 20/04/21 Preston v Derby Draw 3.3 2.09%
E2 20/04/21 AFC Wimbledon v Oxford Draw 3.64 3.12%
E3 20/04/21 Bolton v Carlisle Away 3.4 5.54%
E3 20/04/21 Mansfield v Scunthorpe Home 1.89 3.93%
EC 20/04/21 Chesterfield v Halifax Draw 3.6 3.54%
EC 20/04/21 Wealdstone v Maidenhead Home 4.5 8.95%
EC 20/04/21 Woking v Torquay Away 1.85 2.28%
F2 20/04/21 Guingamp v Chambly Home 1.89 2.14%
F2 20/04/21 Nancy v Ajaccio Draw 3.1 4.99%
F2 20/04/21 Niort v Troyes Home 4.75 3.21%
F2 20/04/21 Pau FC v Auxerre Away 2.42 2.98%
G1 21/04/21 Aris v PAOK Away 2.5 2.80%
G1 21/04/21 Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis Home 1.25 3.12%
I1 21/04/21 Bologna v Torino Draw 3.5 2.27%
I1 21/04/21 Crotone v Sampdoria Away 2.1 2.42%
I1 21/04/21 Juventus v Parma Home 1.3 2.32%
I1 21/04/21 Spezia v Inter Home 9 2.17%
I1 21/04/21 Spezia v Inter Draw 5.35 2.25%
I1 22/04/21 Napoli v Lazio Away 3.89 2.71%
N1 22/04/21 Ajax v Utrecht Draw 5.5 3.24%
P1 22/04/21 Gil Vicente v Famalicao Away 3.1 2.98%
P1 22/04/21 Portimonense v Benfica Home 7.5 4.71%
P1 22/04/21 Tondela v Nacional Away 4 4.54%
SC2 20/04/21 Airdrie Utd v East Fife Draw 3.5 3.50%
SC3 20/04/21 Stirling v Edinburgh City Away 3.1 3.57%
SP1 21/04/21 Alaves v Villarreal Away 2 4.13%
SP1 21/04/21 Cadiz v Real Madrid Home 11 7.11%
SP1 21/04/21 Levante v Sevilla Away 1.74 2.81%
SP1 21/04/21 Osasuna v Valencia Draw 3.3 3.00%
SP1 22/04/21 Sociedad v Celta Draw 3.86 2.04%
T1 20/04/21 Rizespor v Konyaspor Draw 3.24 3.97%

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.