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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator

Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 16:00 21st September 2018, prices subject to change).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
E3 22/09/18 Oldham v Colchester Draw 3.5 2.26% 188bet
F2 24/09/18 Niort v Lens Home 3.4 3.03% bet365
F2 21/09/18 Ajaccio GFCO v Nancy Draw 3.2 4.27% bet365
F1 21/09/18 Monaco v Nimes Draw 4 3.95% bet365
EC 22/09/18 Halifax v Hartlepool Draw 3.5 2.97% bet365
E1 22/09/18 Nott'm Forest v Rotherham Draw 4 2.75% bet365
SP2 22/09/18 Rayo Majadahonda v Extremadura UD Draw 3.3 2.22% bet365
N1 22/09/18 Vitesse v Den Haag Away 7.5 13.48% bet365
G1 22/09/18 Asteras Tripolis v Apollon Away 10 9.42% bet365
E2 22/09/18 Doncaster v Bradford Away 6 7.69% bet365
F1 23/09/18 Guingamp v Bordeaux Away 3.5 7.09% bet365
E3 22/09/18 Forest Green v Crawley Town Away 4.75 6.74% bet365
E3 22/09/18 Northampton v Notts County Away 4 6.57% bet365
F1 22/09/18 St Etienne v Caen Away 6.5 5.68% bet365
E3 22/09/18 Yeovil v Swindon Away 3.75 5.23% bet365
SP2 23/09/18 Reus Deportiu v Gimnastic Away 4 4.41% bet365
E0 23/09/18 Arsenal v Everton Away 7.5 4.18% bet365
D1 21/09/18 Stuttgart v Fortuna Dusseldorf Away 5.25 3.88% bet365
E2 22/09/18 Portsmouth v Wycombe Away 5.75 2.74% bet365
E3 22/09/18 Exeter v Cheltenham Away 4.33 2.67% bet365
E3 22/09/18 Bury v Carlisle Away 5 2.66% bet365
F1 23/09/18 Lyon v Marseille Away 3.8 2.44% bet365
F1 23/09/18 Rennes v Paris SG Home 8.5 11.84% Betfair
E0 22/09/18 Cardiff v Man City Draw 9 6.80% Betfair
SC3 22/09/18 Stirling v Annan Athletic Home 2.3 8.90% Betfred
SC2 22/09/18 Airdrie Utd v Dumbarton Home 2.5 5.49% Betfred
SC3 22/09/18 Peterhead v Berwick Home 1.29 2.15% Betfred
I1 23/09/18 Bologna v Roma Draw 4 2.34% Betfred
E1 22/09/18 West Brom v Millwall Away 5.5 4.39% Betfred
E1 22/09/18 Reading v Hull Away 3.2 4.09% Betfred
E2 22/09/18 Gillingham v Peterboro Home 3.15 5.11% BetOlimp
P1 23/09/18 Benfica v Aves Home 1.19 3.06% BetOlimp
T1 22/09/18 Kayserispor v Konyaspor Home 2.46 2.19% BetOlimp
G1 24/09/18 Panionios v Olympiakos Away 1.57 2.12% BetOlimp
E0 23/09/18 West Ham v Chelsea Home 6.5 8.72% BetRegal
I1 23/09/18 Frosinone v Juventus Home 21 2.65% BetVictor
D2 23/09/18 Hamburg v Regensburg Draw 4.2 2.68% BetVictor
E1 22/09/18 Leeds v Birmingham Draw 3.75 2.44% BetVictor
E3 22/09/18 Exeter v Cheltenham Draw 3.75 2.22% BetVictor
I1 23/09/18 Lazio v Genoa Away 8.5 8.90% BetVictor
SC0 22/09/18 Hearts v Livingston Away 8.5 8.88% Boyle Sports
N1 21/09/18 Heracles v Graafschap Home 1.53 2.15% Bwin
E2 22/09/18 Oxford v Walsall Away 3.24 2.11% Cashpoint
D2 23/09/18 Heidenheim v Greuther Furth Home 2.51 7.31% Coolbet
D2 21/09/18 Sandhausen v FC Koln Home 4.5 5.36% Coolbet
F1 23/09/18 Lyon v Marseille Home 2.17 4.26% Coolbet
D1 22/09/18 Nurnberg v Hannover Home 2.6 2.24% Coolbet
E1 22/09/18 Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds Home 1.62 2.15% Coolbet
E2 22/09/18 Blackpool v Luton Away 2.6 6.77% Coolbet
SC0 22/09/18 Hamilton v St Mirren Away 3.05 3.69% Coolbet
T1 23/09/18 Akhisar Belediyespor v Galatasaray Away 1.8 2.69% Coolbet
F2 21/09/18 Sochaux v Orleans Home 2.1 3.13% Expekt
I2 22/09/18 Palermo v Perugia Draw 3.45 3.98% Expekt
I2 22/09/18 Pescara v Foggia Draw 3.35 3.38% Expekt
D1 23/09/18 Leverkusen v Mainz Home 1.7 4.64% Interwetten
SP1 23/09/18 Villarreal v Valencia Home 2.45 3.58% Interwetten
E0 22/09/18 Fulham v Watford Home 2.6 2.05% Interwetten
F1 21/09/18 Monaco v Nimes Away 5.5 13.47% Interwetten
SP1 21/09/18 Huesca v Sociedad Away 2.2 2.84% Interwetten
D2 21/09/18 Sandhausen v FC Koln Away 2 2.28% Interwetten
SC3 22/09/18 Clyde v Elgin Away 5.08 2.39% LeonBets
SP1 23/09/18 Levante v Sevilla Home 3.6 4.12% NightRush
I1 21/09/18 Sassuolo v Empoli Away 3.9 4.45% NightRush
F2 21/09/18 Lorient v Clermont Away 5.8 4.75% William Hill
G1 22/09/18 Giannina v Aris Draw 3.25 3.85% X-TiP

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.