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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value


I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


WISDOM OF THE CROWD Updated

Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator


Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
Order from Amazon or High Stakes.

Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble gesponsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 14:30 18th May 2018, prices subject to change).

Div Date Selection Odds Value Bookie
SP2 21/05/18 Lugo v Huesca Home 4.5 3.04% bet365
SP2 20/05/18 Cordoba v Almeria Away 5.75 4.09% bet365
SP1 20/05/18 Barcelona v Sociedad Away 11 2.65% Betfair
I1 20/05/18 Sassuolo v Roma Draw 4 5.22% BetOlimp
I2 18/05/18 Cittadella v Pro Vercelli Away 9 7.02% BetVictor
SP2 20/05/18 Zaragoza v Albacete Home 1.74 3.05% Bookmaker
T1 18/05/18 Akhisar Belediyespor v Osmanlispor Away 3.25 2.77% Cashpoint
SP1 19/05/18 Celta v Levante Home 2 7.72% Interwetten
I1 20/05/18 Napoli v Crotone Home 1.6 6.11% Interwetten
SP1 20/05/18 Valencia v La Coruna Home 1.45 5.33% Interwetten
F1 19/05/18 Rennes v Montpellier Home 2 4.10% Interwetten
SP1 19/05/18 Sevilla v Alaves Home 1.5 3.52% Interwetten
F1 19/05/18 Nantes v Strasbourg Home 1.9 3.08% Interwetten
SP1 20/05/18 Barcelona v Sociedad Home 1.3 2.30% Interwetten
SP1 19/05/18 Villarreal v Real Madrid Away 2.5 13.12% Interwetten
SP1 19/05/18 Las Palmas v Girona Away 2.5 9.00% Interwetten
I1 20/05/18 Chievo v Benevento Away 7.5 6.25% Interwetten
I1 20/05/18 Lazio v Inter Away 3 3.10% Interwetten
I1 20/05/18 Napoli v Crotone Away 6.5 3.52% Ladbrokes
T1 19/05/18 Fenerbahce v Konyaspor Away 19 2.99% Ladbrokes
F1 19/05/18 Lyon v Nice Home 1.51 2.81% Marsbet
T1 18/05/18 Alanyaspor v Antalyaspor Home 2.28 2.03% Marsbet
F1 19/05/18 Marseille v Amiens Draw 7.23 2.02% Marsbet
SP2 20/05/18 Barcelona B v Cadiz Home 2.8 4.69% Unibet
F1 19/05/18 Troyes v Monaco Home 6 2.20% William Hill

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.