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Wisdom of the Crowd: Finding Betting Value

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I have written a PDF document describing the basis of a betting value hunting methodology called Wisdom of the Crowd. The material is adapted from my book Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. You can also read the basis of the methodology in my articles.

Update 23rd June 2017: I have now updated the original PDF with new data and new models for finding 'true' odds (link below). The updated PDF ismuch more extenisve than the orignal, but I will leave the link to the original document available to allow comparison if required.


WISDOM OF THE CROWD Updated

Plus Excel 'True' Odds Calculator


Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling by Joseph Buchdahl
People have been gambling, for money, entertainment, escape and a desire to win, for as long as history itself. However, these are secondary considerations to a craving for a sense of control over uncertainty, a sense that is almost always illusory. To find out why, Joseph Buchdahl explores the science of chance and probability, expectation and utility, the irrationality of human beings, evolutionary perspectives on gambling, luck and skill, the wisdom of crowds and much more besides.
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Since the start of the 2015/16 season I have been showing on this page a list of football matches where any 'wisdom-of-the-crowd' value might exist (specifically where at least 2% value can be found) when I provide my biweekly fixtures updates. For the avoidance of confusion, these matches should NOT be seen as betting tips but rather a source of information complementary to other research that you might undertake for your betting activities. Football-Data takes no reponsibility for any losses incurred as a result of betting any of the suggestions. Follow me on twitter for notifications of when new matches are added. Please gamble responsibly, don't chase losses and NEVER risk what you cannot affort to lose.

Archive of previous results since August 2015 (Excel)

The latest matches selected by the methodology are shown below (odds correct as of 15:20 27th November 2020, prices subject to change, check Oddsportal for bookmakers).

Div Date Selection Odds Value
B1 27/11/20 Eupen v Charleroi Home 3.35 2.50%
B1 29/11/20 Mechelen v Beerschot VA Home 2.28 2.43%
D1 27/11/20 Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen Away 4.6 3.36%
D1 28/11/20 Augsburg v Freiburg Draw 3.71 3.25%
D1 28/11/20 Union Berlin v Ein Frankfurt Home 2.66 2.79%
D2 27/11/20 Darmstadt v Braunschweig Draw 4.14 4.00%
D2 27/11/20 St Pauli v Osnabruck Draw 3.8 4.71%
D2 28/11/20 Karlsruhe v Paderborn Draw 3.88 5.56%
D2 28/11/20 Regensburg v Wurzburger Kickers Home 2.2 2.60%
D2 28/11/20 Regensburg v Wurzburger Kickers Draw 4.02 6.18%
D2 28/11/20 Regensburg v Wurzburger Kickers Away 3.8 2.41%
D2 29/11/20 Hannover v Holstein Kiel Draw 3.98 5.31%
D2 29/11/20 Heidenheim v Hamburg Draw 3.78 3.02%
D2 29/11/20 Heidenheim v Hamburg Away 2.31 2.41%
D2 29/11/20 Nurnberg v Greuther Furth Draw 3.78 5.40%
D2 30/11/20 Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf Draw 3.76 4.67%
E0 28/11/20 Everton v Leeds Draw 3.99 2.96%
E0 28/11/20 Man City v Burnley Away 21 15.90%
E0 29/11/20 Chelsea v Tottenham Draw 3.83 6.16%
E1 28/11/20 Blackburn v Barnsley Home 1.99 2.79%
E1 28/11/20 Norwich v Coventry Draw 4.25 2.68%
E1 28/11/20 Norwich v Coventry Away 6 6.19%
E1 28/11/20 Rotherham v Bournemouth Away 1.88 3.83%
E1 28/11/20 Watford v Preston Draw 3.54 2.52%
F1 28/11/20 Marseille v Nantes Away 4 3.29%
F1 28/11/20 Paris SG v Bordeaux Away 18 8.33%
F1 29/11/20 Monaco v Nimes Home 1.43 3.98%
F1 29/11/20 Nice v Dijon Home 1.94 3.87%
F2 28/11/20 Auxerre v Valenciennes Away 5.5 2.84%
F2 28/11/20 Grenoble v Paris FC Draw 3 4.51%
F2 28/11/20 Rodez v Guingamp Draw 3.2 2.16%
F2 28/11/20 Toulouse v Niort Home 2.08 2.80%
G1 28/11/20 Aris v Olympiakos Draw 4.2 2.20%
G1 29/11/20 Panathinaikos v Panetolikos Home 1.45 2.26%
G1 30/11/20 Apollon v Volos NFC Draw 3.25 10.00%
I1 28/11/20 Benevento v Juventus Draw 5.55 6.09%
I1 29/11/20 Lazio v Udinese Home 1.82 2.53%
I1 29/11/20 Napoli v Roma Draw 4.03 2.45%
I1 29/11/20 Napoli v Roma Away 3.4 4.35%
I1 30/11/20 Genoa v Parma Home 2.85 2.27%
I1 30/11/20 Genoa v Parma Draw 3.54 2.72%
I2 27/11/20 Chievo v Lecce Home 2.96 2.27%
I2 28/11/20 Venezia v Ascoli Home 1.76 2.24%
I2 29/11/20 Cosenza v Salernitana Draw 3.1 4.47%
N1 28/11/20 FC Emmen v Ajax Draw 8.5 7.20%
N1 28/11/20 VVV Venlo v Zwolle Draw 3.69 2.41%
N1 29/11/20 Heracles v AZ Alkmaar Away 1.8 3.92%
P1 29/11/20 Gil Vicente v Rio Ave Draw 3.4 3.46%
P1 30/11/20 Maritimo v Benfica Draw 5.5 3.53%
SC3 28/11/20 Queens Park v Stenhousemuir Draw 4.05 2.26%
SP1 28/11/20 Elche v Cadiz Draw 3.15 2.04%
SP1 29/11/20 Barcelona v Osasuna Home 1.3 2.49%
SP1 29/11/20 Getafe v Ath Bilbao Away 3.1 5.50%
SP1 29/11/20 Sociedad v Villarreal Home 2.25 3.46%
SP1 30/11/20 Betis v Eibar Home 1.89 4.02%
SP2 28/11/20 Vallecano v Cartagena Home 1.82 2.50%
SP2 29/11/20 Mallorca v Logrones Home 1.87 4.07%
SP2 30/11/20 Oviedo v Almeria Draw 3 4.90%
T1 28/11/20 Gaziantep v Yeni Malatyaspor Draw 3.64 2.42%
T1 30/11/20 Sivasspor v Goztep Draw 4.2 5.09%

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the betting on the suggested matches published on this page will allow the reader to make a profit. Neither are they a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.