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Updated: 22/10/18 Bookmark and Share legal disclaimer


Betting Against the Market: A Profitable Betting System?

Football-Data has developed a potentially profitable betting system that describes how betting against the market, following a so-called contrarian approach, could theoretically have made a punter £60,000 over the last 10 seasons (2005/06 to 2014/15) from 15,000 level stakes of £100 each (although odds availabiliity, staking limits and other bookmaker restrictions would have had a significant influence on achieving this return).

The betting system exploits a market inefficiency that arises as a result of bettors behaving in sub-optimal ways. By betting against that irrationality, the system has revealed an apparently consistent profitbaility.

The system is fully described in my new book (see below), page 114, Exploiting the Hot Hand Fallacy. The best way to acquire the system is by simply purchasing the book.

In my new book, Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling, I explore the science of probability and uncertainty, the difference between expectation and utility, bettors' irrationality and how we might exploit it for a profit in football, luck & skill, market efficiency and the wisdom of crowds, why winners take all and why indeed we gamble at all.

From: Amazon | Google | Waterstones | High Stakes.

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.

Alternatively, a 10-page PDF describing the system only can be purchased for the same price via Paypal


As soon as payment is received via Paypal, I will e-mail you the PDF document.

Joseph Buchdahl

Football-Data cannot guarantee that the information contained in this PDF will allow the reader to make a profit by following the advice contained within. Neither is it a recommendation to bet or gamble. Those who gamble, do so at their own risk. Never risk what you cannot afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.